Fig. 3: Constrained extreme precipitation projections.
From: Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability
Unconstrained (gray) versus constrained (orange) projections of probability ratios of extreme precipitation (95th percentile of pr5d) under a 3 °C global warming increment in the joint ensemble of CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6). The histograms show the fraction of models with a certain probability ratio. Dashed vertical lines indicate the multi-model ensemble medians. The relative reduction in inter-model variance in projections by the constraint is noted in top-right. Regional results are shown for Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes (45°−70°N) in June-to-August (JJA; a), Southern hemisphere mid-latitudes (45°−70°S) in JJA (b), Northern Asia in JJA (c), West North Pacific in JJA (d), Europe in December-to-February (DJF; e) and Eastern North America in DJF (f).
