Fig. 4: Linking temporal changes in biodiversity effects with stability over three non-overlapping 5-year windows.

The structural equation model shows the species richness (SR_log) effects on the 5-year community productivity (ANPP) and indirectly through the 5-year complementarity (CE) and selection (SE) effects that together affect species population stability (CV_pop⁻¹) and asynchrony (Async). Standardized path coefficients are indicated by arrows with significant positive effects in blue and negative in red. Significance is indicated by *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, and ***P < 0.001. Different letters adjacent to coefficients indicate significant differences between models a–c (P < 0.05, no multiple comparison adjustments made). Async and CV_pop⁻¹ were allowed to covary, as well as the CE and SE. Fit statistics for the multigroup structural equation model: Χ² = 16.1, P = 0.375; RMSEA = 0.035, P_RMSEA = 0.524. In d and e, the direct effects, indirect effects, and the total summed effect, of species richness on asynchrony and population stability are shown, respectively. Tests for significance are two-sided for a difference from 0.