Fig. 2: Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction of the B.1.1.318 variant.
From: Emergence and spread of two SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest in Nigeria
A Time-resolved B.1.1.318 phylogeny. Branches are coloured by region-level geographic state reconstruction. Locations with negligible contributions have been grouped and annotated in grey. Internal nodes annotated with black points represent posterior support > 0.75. B Mean number of introductions (Markov jumps) of B1.1.318 into Nigeria from all source regions, binned by month. The mean number of introductions overall (inset). C Volume of monthly air passengers inbound to Nigeria across 2020–2021 by source region (bar, left axis) and fold increase in travel volume compared to May 2020 baseline. D Estimated Introduction Intensity Index for Nigeria from 2020 to 2021. E Percentage of inbound air travel to Nigeria by source region across 2020–2021. See Supplementary Fig. 2 for country-level data. F Estimated Importation Intensity Index (III) for Nigeria from 2020 to 2021.
