Fig. 8: Evaluating statistical modelling of compound events using large ensemble simulations.
From: Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations
Blue bars as in Fig. 5b. Red line, the historical probability of annual soil moisture drought in N simultaneous regions based on data of the first ensemble member. Grey bar, sampling uncertainty (centred 95% confidence interval) in the historical probability estimated through a statistical model fitted to data of the first ensemble member (the mean prediction of the statistical model is shown by the black line).
