Fig. 5: Immunotherapy-specific survival curve shapes critically determine a trial’s power to detect different treatment effects. | Nature Communications

Fig. 5: Immunotherapy-specific survival curve shapes critically determine a trial’s power to detect different treatment effects.

From: In silico cancer immunotherapy trials uncover the consequences of therapy-specific response patterns for clinical trial design and outcome

Fig. 5

We analyzed the power of in silico trials to detect a difference in 2-year OS (black lines) or a hazard ratio not equal to 1 (red lines) for (A) chemotherapy vs. placebo (transient effect, M1); (B) chemoimmunotherapy vs. chemotherapy (M2); and (C) chemotherapy vs. placebo (long-term effect; M3). Choosing an inappropriate effect size for the response pattern at hand leads to a significant reduction in trial power, greatly reducing the probability of success. The chemotherapy effect for M3 was set to a 20% reduction in growth rate to simulate a more subtle effect; all other parameters were set to the values fitted to the CA184-024 data. Points and error bars: estimated proportions and 95% CIs from binomial tests (n = 250 simulated trials per point). Source data are provided as a Source Data file.

Back to article page