Fig. 3: Supply-side effect, refugee resettlement, and food import.

A Changes in the annual flow volume of the Yarmouk River compared to the 2006–2010 average. Blue lines indicate the observed flow changes at the Al Wehda dam on the Syria–Jordan border (dashed), the estimated portion of that change attributable to abandoned Syrian agriculture (dotted), and the portion of the refugee-attributed flow increase that was likely retrieved for Jordanian irrigation (plain), with shaded area indicating approximate confident ranges (see SI). Stacked colors indicate the blue water demand of Syrian refugees displaced into Jordan. Approximately 60% of this water is not procured through food import but sourced domestically by Jordan (teal). B Refugee resettlement trade-off between relieving the individual hardship of refugees and relieving the water stress of the countries of refuge. Dots in the main graph represent alternative resettlement plans, where the 1.44 million refugees in the current United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) plan are selected from alternative combinations of current host countries. Pie charts represent the compositions of the highlighted plans. Bar charts represent water stress associated with UNHCR-registered refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, and Yemen without resettlement (gray) and with each highlighted plan (blue). C Relative increase in blue water import (y-axis) necessary to relieve the water stress (x-axis) associated with the short-run food consumption of refugees. The relationship is displayed by the type of good included in the FAO balance sheet in decreasing order of blue water intensity. Note that the analyses in Panels B and C only include registered refugees under the UNCHR mandate, which are eligible to be considered for resettlement.