Fig. 3: Construction and validation of ICBcircSig as the prognostic biomarker.

Kaplan–Meier survival curves show expression of circTMTC3 (a) and circFAM117B (b) in the ICBcircSig associated with PFS. The expression of circTMTC3 (c) and circFAM117B (d) expression were significantly higher in PD groups (n = 16) than CR/PR or SD groups (n = 54). e–h The qRT-PCR and Sanger sequencing validate expression and junction of circRNAs. The expression of circTMTC3 (e) and circFAM117B (g) were detected by qRT-PCR in pre-treatment tumor biopsies from patients show response (n = 11) and non-response (n = 4) to anti-PD-1 therapy. The schematic diagram show generation of circTMTC3 (f, left panel) and circFAM117B (h, left panel). Sanger sequencing confirmed that PCR products spanned the circular junction of predicted circTMTC3 (f, right panel) and circFAM117B (h, right panel) in the patient with non-response to anti-PD-1 therapy. The magenta dash line indicates the circular junction site. i ROC curves quantifying ICBcircSig score response prediction AUC in cohort 1. j Kaplan–Meier survival curves of PFS between high- and low-risk patients stratified by ICBcircSig score using the optimal cutoff. k Time-dependent ROC curve at 12 and 24-months of PFS for the ICBcircSig score. l Forest plot for the HRs of multivariate Cox model of the ICBcircSig score and clinicopathological variables. Black vertical lines indicate the 95% confidence interval (CI). m Boxplot of ICBcircSig score among NR (n = 16) and R (n = 54) groups. n Kaplan–Meier survival curves of OS between high- and low-risk patients stratified by ICBcircSig score. A log-rank test was used in a, b, j, and n. A two-sided Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used in c–e, g, and m. The box in c–e, g, and m showed the median ± 1 quartile, with the whiskers extending from the hinge to the smallest or largest value within 1.5× IQR from the box boundaries. PFS progressive free survival, OS overall survival, CR/PR complete response/partial response, SD stable disease, PD progressive disease, ROC receiver operating characteristic curve, HR hazard ratio, R responder, NR non-responder. Source data are provided as a Source data Fig. 3a–e, g, i–k, m, n.