Fig. 2: Results of three-signal (GHG+, NAT, and AER) detection.
From: Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario
Three-way regression (GHG+, NAT, and AER) results for the observed changes in Arctic sea ice area (SIA) for each month for three observational data sets of a OSISAF, b NASATeam, and c Bootstrap. The best estimates (marks) and 5–95% ranges (error bars) of scaling factors (regression coefficients, see Methods) are displayed for each signal. Using 3-year mean anomaly time series of Arctic SIA (see Fig. 1), observations are regressed simultaneously onto multi-model-simulated responses (fingerprints) to three signals of GHG+, NAT, and AER forcing (see Methods).
