Fig. 3: Attributable trends.
From: Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario
Attributable trends (color bars) in Arctic sea ice are (SIA) for each month during 1979–2019 to GHG+, AER, and NAT forcings compared with the observed trends (OBS, black bars) from a OSISAF, b NASATeam, and c Bootstrap. Attributable trends (see Methods) are obtained based on scaling factors from the three-signal analysis shown in Fig. 2 by multiplying each signal’s fingerprint (3-year mean SIA anomaly time series) by the corresponding scaling factors (best estimates). The error bars indicate the 5–95% intervals of attributable trends calculated using the 5–95% ranges of scaling factors.
