Fig. 4: Effects of manufacturing and material efficiency improvements.
From: Near-term pathways for decarbonizing global concrete production
By adapting mature reduction strategies, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from reinforced concrete can be reduced by up to 76% in 2100 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Reducing the demand for cement by increasing the use of SCMs and increasing structural longevity have the greatest influence. The potential reduction in GHG emissions between 2015–2100 if all methods are implemented, namely: (i) if all manufacturing interventions are considered; (ii) if the effects of increased supplementary cementitious material replacement of cement is considered; (iii) if design optimization of members is considered; and (iv) if increased structural longevity is considered. For (i)-(iii), emissions reductions are modeled here as increasing implementation linearly over time with 100% implementation by 2100; however, implementation could happen at a much faster rate. For elongating the lifetime of systems, emissions reductions are modeled as a function of stock dynamics. a Magnitude of emissions reduction from each measure considered separately. b Magnitude of emissions reduction from each measure considered cumulatively. The reduction in GHG emissions between 2018–2030, as well as subsequent drops, reflect projection models estimating annual cement production as a function of cement stock per capita and population growth. Drops in yearly emissions reflect regions such as Europe and China experiencing declining or stabilizing cement requirements as they relate to these parameters. Expected growth in population and investments in building up infrastructure in countries/regions such as India, Africa, and Developing Asia, is projected to cause a global increase in GHG emissions from cement production (note rapid increase after ~2030). (Note: Projections modeled based on data, population growth, and resource saturation predictions developed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic; as new data are accumulated, future work should account for the effects of this pandemic on concrete demand).
