Fig. 2: Measured heatwave stress depends on thermal tolerance enhancement rate.
From: Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change
Sea surface temperature (SST) for 2010 and associated heat stress experienced (DHW) varies under different simulated rates of increase in the thermal stress threshold of corals (i.e., thermal tolerance). The black dashed line shows the maximum of monthly mean climatologies (MMM) of Palauan reefs (left y-axis) which is based on the temperature of these reefs between 1985 and 2012. The yellow dashed line is 1 °C above this MMM and represents what is currently considered to be the bleaching temperature stress threshold for corals23,54. The other dashed lines show the different thermal stress thresholds that would be achieved by 2010 under the simulated rates of increase in thermal tolerance of 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3 °C/decade since 1988 (left y-axis, see Supplementary Fig. 1). The black solid line is the daily sea surface temperature record for 2010 (left y-axis). If sea surface temperature is above a dotted line, that thermal stress threshold has been surpassed leading to a risk of mass coral bleaching. This risk is quantified by measuring accumulated heat stress as degree heating weeks (DHW, right y-axis), which is calculated daily from the SST that has been experienced and the simulated temperature stress threshold for that year. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
