Fig. 3: Bleaching predictions by simulated thermal tolerance enhancement.
From: Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change
Bleaching predictions based on DHW without any thermal tolerance enhancement (upper row), and with the 12 different enhancement rates from 0.025 to 0.3 °C/decade (lower three rows), showing individual bleaching observations (N = 237 records) each with a unique time and location (points), model predictions (lines and uncertainty—mean and 95% credible intervals), and model parsimony, evaluated using the deviance information criterion (DIC). Notably, the most parsimonious predictions with lowest DIC were achieved for a simulated thermal tolerance enhancement rate of 0.1 °C/decade. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
