Fig. 4: Schematic of compartment model.

The schematic of the compartmental model of the natural history of multiple myeloma for a birth cohort is shown. Boxes represent the compartments, and arrows represent flows between compartments. \({{{{{{\rm{P}}}}}}}_{{{{{{\rm{H}}}}}}}\) is the proportion of the birth cohort that is healthy, \({{{{{{\rm{P}}}}}}}_{{{{{{\rm{MGUS}}}}}}}\) is the proportion of the birth cohort that has MGUS, \({{{{{{\rm{P}}}}}}}_{{{{{{\rm{MM}}}}}}}\) is the proportion of the birth cohort that has MM, and \({{{{{{\rm{P}}}}}}}_{{{{{{\rm{D}}}}}}}\) is the proportion of the both cohort that has died. \({\lambda }_{{MGUS}}\left(a,\, s,\, r\right)\) is the rate that a healthy individual of age a, gender s, and race/ethnicity r develops MGUS, and \({\lambda }_{{MM}}\left(a,\, s,\, r\right)\) is the rate that an individual of age a, gender s, and race/ethnicity r with MGUS develops MM. \({\mu }_{H}(a,\, s,\, r)\) is the mortality rate for a healthy individual of age a, gender s, and race/ethnicity r. \({\mu }_{{MGUS}}(a,\, s,\, r)\) is the mortality rate for an individual of age a, gender s, and race/ethnicity r with MGUS, and \({\mu }_{{MM}}(a,\, s,\, r)\) is the mortality rate for an individual of age a, gender s, and race/ethnicity r with MM.