Fig. 4: Skill dependence on initial El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status in decadal hindcasts of the real-world climate.
From: Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events
The mean squared skill score (MSSS) of the near-surface temperature for the real-world hindcasts provided by the Community Earth System Model decadal prediction large ensemble (CESM-DPLE) simulations5 initialised in El Niño (EN; a–c), La Niña (LN; d–f), and the skill difference between the different groups: El Niño – neutral (g–i) and La Niña – neutral (j–l). Rows correspond to forecast year 1 (a, d, g, j), the average of forecast years 2–3 (b, e, h, k), and the average of forecast years 4–6 (c, f, i, l). The plus sign stippling indicates grid cells where the skill score or skill differences are significant at the false discovery rate (FDR) being 0.2 (when adjusting for the false discovery rate, see Methods for details). The square symbols indicate grid cells where the skill score or skill differences are significant at the 90% level (outside the 5%–95% confidence interval based on local individual testing with 1000 bootstrap realisations). HardCRUT4-median is used as the observation ref. 59.
