Fig. 1: Total and dynamical contributions to extreme and mean TX trends. | Nature Communications

Fig. 1: Total and dynamical contributions to extreme and mean TX trends.

From: Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

Fig. 1

ERA5 reanalysis temperature trends relative to the global warming level (°C/GWD), for summer Maximum of maximal daily temperature (TXx) (a) and b) and summer Mean of maximal daily temperature (TXm, c) and d). The raw trend (a) and c) is compared to the estimated dynamical contribution to these trends (b) and d), obtained by replacing daily temperatures by those of best circulation analogues with a thermodynamic correction (see Methods). The areas highlighted are: (black box) the area used to calculate the anomaly correlation of 500 hPa streamfunction for the definition of analogues; the Western Europe focus area (blue box), where maximal daily temperature trends are averaged in this study. Dotted points show areas where statistical significance of trends is less than 95% (two sided). The statistical test uses a 2-sigma rule for the regression coefficient, accounting for the total number of well-separated analogues (see Methods).

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