Fig. 3: Isolated variable impacts on medium-/heavy-duty (MHD) battery electric vehicle (BEV) stock shares in 2050 and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) stock (all duties) in 2050.

Input categories (y-axis) are ranked by greatest to least absolute impact. Scenarios with MHD BEV stock shares that increased <50,000 in 2050 are excluded in (a) and all other omitted input categories in (b) had no impact to MHD stock in isolation. The baseline MHD stock shares in 2050 are 0.14% BEVs and 0% FCEVs. For electricity price scenarios, “res” and “com” refer to residential and commercial prices, respectively. BEV and FCEV costs and fuel economies are based on the 2020 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) study⁸⁹, with ATB “Con,” “Mid,” and “Adv” referring to the constant, mid, and advanced scenarios, respectively, with two additional scenarios of battery cost reduction assumptions ($60 and $40 kWh⁻¹ by 2050). GGE gasoline gallon equivalent, ZEV zero-emissions vehicle.