Fig. 1: 45-year time series of larval food chain length (FCL) and population dynamics.
From: Anchovy boom and bust linked to trophic shifts in larval diet
Bayesian state space model estimated (a) spawning stock biomass (SSB) trends derived from annual estimates provided by Thayer et al.23, with the 1962–1987 and 2005 boom periods shaded in blue, and the 1988–2003 bust period shaded in yellow, (b) FCLTrp-Scr trends calculated from multiple trophic and source AAs for larval anchovy (n = 199), and (c) trends in the size ratio of all large (10–20 mm SL) to small (5–10 mm SL) anchovy larvae collected during spring from each station in the sampling grid (Supplementary Fig. 1). Red lines indicate maximum a posteriori yearly values, while error bands denote the 95% posterior credible intervals of yearly estimates for each metric. Maximum a posteriori cross-correlation analysis of (d) autocorrelation function (AFC) at year lag for FCLTrp-Scr ~ Large:Small larval size ratio, and (e) Large:Small larval size ratio ~ SSB. Blue dashed bands indicate correlation threshold values (~ ±0.30) that would be met or exceeded 5% of the time by chance if the true lagged correlations were 0 (e.g., a white noise process with no correlation at any lag). Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
