Fig. 2: Contribution of heat extremes to lake surface water temperature (LSWT).

a Trend of LSWT. b Trend of LSWT simulated by removing heat extremes from lake surface air temperature (SAT) in Air2Water (RHLSWT). c Trend of differences between LSWT and RHLSWT. d Contribution of heat extremes to lake warming. e Average LSWT, RHLSWT and differences between LSWT and RHLSWT from 1985 to 2022. f Histogram of trend and contribution, where difference in trend of LSWT and RHLSWT represents the trend of RHLSWT minus the trend of LSWT. g Probability density of trend in SAT (red) and SAT after removal of heat extremes (RHSAT) (cyan). h Probability density of trend in LSWT (red) and RHLSWT (cyan). i Probability density of trend in difference between LSWT and RHLSWT (blue) and difference between SAT and RHSAT (orange). j Probability density of trend in heat extremes of LSWT (blue) and SAT (orange). The dashed line indicates the median value of the dataset with the corresponding color. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.