Fig. 2: Bayesian hierarchical model correlating influenza (sub)type relative epidemic size with seasons since substantial circulation, epidemic sizes in previous seasons and season-specific effects.
From: Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation
Posterior distributions of parameter estimates in the model, with seasons since previous substantial circulation (circles), previous epidemic size (diamonds), or sum of previous two epidemics’ size (squares) as predictors, either with or without season effects. Points, thick and thin lines correspond to the posterior median, 50% CI, and 95% CI, respectively (n = 188, 198, 191 country-season pairs for A/H3N2, A/H1N1pdm09 and B, respectively, for models with seasons since substantial circulation as predictor, n = 180 country-season pairs for each (sub)type for models with previous season size as predictor, n = 160 country-season pairs for each (sub)type for models with sum of two previous seasons size as predictor).
