Fig. 4: Effects of grid decarbonization on future irrigation pumping emissions.

Projected greenhouse gas emissions from irrigation pumping from 2018 to 2050 associated with changes in the fuel mix for electricity generation under three policy scenarios: current policy, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA; black and gray squares); no IRA (red circles); and an extension of key tax credits expanded by the IRA (dashed lines). For each of these, we additionally incorporated electrification of non-electric irrigation pumps at a rate of 5% of remaining non-electric energy use per year (open symbols).