Fig. 5: Absolute risk of multi-drug resistance under an importation scenario over 20 years.
From: Assessing emergence risk of double-resistant and triple-resistant genotypes of Plasmodium falciparum
Each boxplot (N = 100 simulations) shows the sum of AUCs across all five maximally-resistant genotypes (Table 1). Boxplot whiskers are 1.5 times the IQR. AUC comparisons between MFT and 5-year cycling and AUC comparisons between MFT and adaptive cycling are assessed with a Mann-Whitney test, and p-value markers (testing whether MFT has lower AUC) are placed next to each boxplot with p < 0.05 (*) or p < 10−4 (**). In these scenarios resistant genotypes are imported according to a Poisson process with a mean importation rate of one parasite per year (in an asymptomatic individual) with an equal 0.20 probability that the imported genotype is one of the five maximally-resistant parasites from Table 1.
