Fig. 3: Viral and spike antibody dynamics in molnupiravir (purple) and Usual Care (grey) arms.

a Median viral load ±95%CI with time, below limit of quantification (BLOQ) measures substituted with LOQ/2 for molnupiravir (n = 253) and Usual Care (n = 324) compared with a Mann–Whitney test. b Viral load with time showing multivariable linear viral dynamic model predictions for a typical individual (female, median age, S-Ab and time since symptom onset) receiving molnupiravir (purple line) or Usual Care (black line). For molnupiravir a piecewise increase then decrease in elimination rate was estimated with a change point at the end of treatment compared with a likelihood ratio test. c Simulation from the viral dynamics model for 1000 subject demographic combinations sampled from the data. Line shows the 50th percentile of the probability of viral load being <109 cp/mL on the last day of treatment for 5 to 14 days treatment. Error bars are 95% prediction intervals. d Geometric mean spike antibody ±95%CI with time compared with a t test. e Spike antibody with time showing multivariable linear antibody dynamic model predictions for a typical individual (female, median age) receiving molnupiravir (purple line) or Usual Care (black line) compared with a likelihood ratio test. f Model-derived individual predictions of spike antibody doubling time versus viral load area under the curve (AUC) from day 0 to 14. *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, ***P < 0.001. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.