Fig. 1: Modeled and observed epidemiological dynamics during the mpox outbreak in Italy, 2022.

A Total number of diagnosed cases with symptom onset in four epidemiological periods (P1: May 9–June 7, 2022; P2: June 8–July 7; P3: July 8–August 6; P4: August 7–September 5). Bars represent the observed values (dark gray) and the mean modelled estimates (blue); vertical bars represent 95% prediction intervals (PI). B Classification of cases in periods P1 and P2 for the subset of cases for which a categorization was available. Categories represent the potential setting of exposure, with “low activity” and “high activity” representing individuals with 2 or less and 3 or more sexual partners disclosed in the preceding 3 weeks, respectively (see Methods). Bars represent the observed values (dark gray) and the mean modelled estimates (blue); vertical bars represent 95% PI. C Epidemic curve by symptom onset date. Observed data (dark gray line) are compared against the mean modeled curve (blue line) and the 95% PI. D Percentage of cases diagnosed via contact tracing; the boxplot represents the mean (central bar), interquartile range (IQR, rectangular box) and 95%PI (whiskers); the gray diamond and whiskers represent the mean and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the binomial distribution for the probability that a diagnosed case is a contact of another case in observed data. E Number of undetected mpox cases estimated by the model (y-axis in a log scale); central bar: median; box: interquartile range (IQR); whiskers: 90%PI. In all figures, model variability derives from 694 simulations accepted during calibration.