Table 1 General descriptions of selected scenarios
Scenario | Sustainability (SSP1-2.6) | Middle of the Road (SSP2-4.5) | Regional Rivalry (SSP3-7.0) | Fossil-fueled Development (SSP5-8.5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Air pollution control | Strong air pollution control with widespread adoption of current best available technology and overall enforcement of environmental laws. Pollutant targets are substantially more ambitious than current levels. | Medium air pollution control with implementation of advanced technologies over current levels, combined with some ‘catch-up’ for low- and medium-income countries in policy efficacy and more ambitious concentration targets. | Weak air pollution control driven by limited technological improvement and environmental awareness. The targets are less ambitious than SSP2-4.5. | Same as SSP1-2.6. |
Energy demand | Low energy demand due to technological development, lifestyle changes and energy efficiency improvements. The share of fossil fuel is replaced by clean energy. | Medium-high energy demand with energy intensity improvement as trend. No remarkable shifts in technology and energy mix. | Medium energy demand caused by slow technological development, material intensive lifestyles and little environmental awareness. Traditional fossil fuel use remains important. | High energy demand strongly coupled to economic activities. Mitigation technologies developed rapidly in the fossil fuel sector with a high social acceptance. |
Population | Low world population associated with lower fertility and higher life expectancy. | Medium population growth following the historical trend. | High population associated with higher fertility and lower life expectancy. | Same as SSP1-2.6. |
Economic development | Intermediate economic growth due to quicker convergence. | Medium economic growth following the historical trend. | Very low growth following weak international co-operation and trade. | High economic growth with focused on “conventional” economic development |
figRadiative forcing level | 2.6 W/m2 at 2100. Corresponding with the RCP2.6 pathway. | 4.5 W/m2 at 2100. Corresponding with the RCP4.5 pathway. | 7.0 W/m2 at 2100. Corresponding with the RCP7.0 pathway. | 8.5 W/m2 at 2100. Corresponding with the RCP8.5 pathway. |
