Fig. 1: Mitigation decomposition for remaining liquid fuels and natural gas in 2050 from five different sources.
From: Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems
Fuels-related mitigation refers to the amount of mitigation needed if all remaining liquid fuels and natural gas were produced from conventional, fossil-based sources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) bars summarize the 97 1.5 °C (C1) scenarios in the IPCC AR6 scenarios database1,28. The center bar uses median values from the full set of 1.5 °C scenarios, whereas the other bars use median values from subsets of scenarios in which Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is less than or greater than a given percentile (reflected in the label). P10 is 10th percentile, P50 is 50th percentile, and P90 is 90th percentile. The International Energy Agency (IEA) NZ is the single net-zero scenario from IEA31. For the Open Energy Outlook (OEO), the left and right cases are the cases with 10th percentile and 90th percentile outcomes for BECCS deployment, respectively, and the central case is the single deterministic net-zero case from the OEO34. For the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Low-Carbon Resources Initiative (LCRI), the left case is the Limited Options case, the middle case is the All Options case, and the right case is the Higher Fuel Cost case from Blanford et al.35. Williams et al. includes three scenarios from their U.S. net-zero study6, with the center bar based on outputs from the central case, the left bar based on the case with the least amount of CDR (100% RE), and the right bar based on the case with the greatest amount of CDR (Low Land). The derived values using reported model outputs for all studies are shown in Supplementary Table 1. Note that the share of liquid fuels and natural gas in final energy in 2050 differs across the studies and scenarios shown. The shares range from 25–33% in the IPCC, 36% in IEA NZ, 29–31% in the OEO for the cases shown, 20–48% in EPRI LCRI, and 39–43% in Williams et al. for the scenarios shown. In 2020, the global share was 55%. BECCS Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration. DACCS Direct Air Carbon Capture and Sequestration. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
