Fig. 1: Model fit results.
From: Modelling the transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza viruses in a live bird market
Posterior distributions for β (A), TE,BR (B), and TE,BY (C) obtained from fits to Ct = 40 (coral) and Ct = 33 (teal) data. D Average posterior probability of a chicken remaining susceptible after a given amount of time spent at the market and 95% C.I. (shaded area). E, F Average proportions of exotic broiler and backyard chickens in either control (solid) or intervention (dashed) groups entering the market as latent or infectious (E + I) or recovered (R). 95% C.I. are denoted with black lines. For both fits we set prior hyper-parameters lβ = 0.005 and \({\bar{T}}_{EI}=5\) days (see Supplementary Methods). Results in (D) are based on 30000 simulations based on 3000 samples from the posterior, each simulation tracking 106 experimental chickens; all other panels are based on 8360 posterior samples, obtained after discarding the first 10000 MCMC iterations and keeping one sample every 1000th iteration.
