Fig. 2: Effectiveness of intervention measures.

Results for early removal/culling of unsold chickens (A, D), control of chickens entering the market (B, E) and preemptive immunisation through vaccination (C, F). Bars represent a mean reduction in average, cumulative daily prevalence with respect to a baseline scenario with no intervention, based on 5000 simulations from 500 posterior samples. The yellow and green bars correspond to direct and environmental transmission, respectively. In the latter case, we set Θ⁻¹ = 3 days for the sake of visualisation. In (B, E), solid and hatched bars correspond to a maximum length of stay of 5 (baseline) and 1 days, respectively. The first and second rows are based on posterior distributions obtained from fits to Ct = 40 and Ct = 33 data, respectively.