Fig. 3: Effectiveness of market depopulation and disinfection under direct vs environmental transmission.

A Cumulative daily prevalence, expressed as a fraction of its stationary value, after depopulating and fully disinfecting (δ = 1) the LBM, under direct (yellow) and environmental (green) transmission. In the latter case, we set Θ⁻¹ = 3 days. B, C Average relaxation time as a function of disinfection δ, based on Ct = 40 and Ct = 33 posterior distributions. Light to dark lines correspond to Θ⁻¹ = 10, 3, 1 days, respectively. Relaxation time is defined as the time at which cumulative daily prevalence crosses a given threshold value for the first time since LBM depopulation. Here, this threshold is set to a fraction (0.95) of the expected cumulative daily prevalence in the pre-intervention period. We compute 500 relaxation times from as many posterior samples, using 10 independent simulations to estimate mean cumulative daily prevalence. D–G Cumulative daily prevalence under various combinations of reduced length of stay (from left to right), reduced probability of prior exposure (from left to right) and disinfection, on the x-axis, for varying rates of environmental decay. Prevalence is calculated relative to a scenario with no interventions and the same Θ. Results corresponding to solid and dashed lines are based on samples from Ct = 40 and Ct = 33 posterior distributions, respectively.