Table 3 Detailed description of the sectoral strengthening scenario
From: Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector
Element | Assumptions from Fuhrman et al. | This study |
|---|---|---|
Population + Socioeconomics | Population peaks at approximately 8.5 billion by mid-century and returns to 7 billion by 2100, following SSP1 | Same |
Industry | Improved material and energy efficiency; reduced demand | Same |
Buildings | Higher energy efficiency; lower residential floorspace satiation values | Same |
Agriculture and Land-use | Reduced preference for beef and non-staple crops | Reduced preference for all animal proteins and non-staple crops |
Electricity | Faster phase-in of wind and solar; reduced social preference for nuclear | Same |
Transportation | Increased ride sharing; reduced shipping + aviation demand; phase-outs of internal combustion freight and passenger vehicles excluding aviation + marine shipping and higher preference for electric vehicles | Increased ride sharing and public transportation use; reduced demand for all transportation modes; more aggressive phase-outs and technological changes (see scenario assumptions for details) |
Bioenergy | Global bioenergy consumption constrained to 56 EJ in 2050 and 100 EJ in 2100, which reduces BECCS | Same |
Geologic carbon storage | Standard GCAM on-shore geologic carbon storage cost assumptions are increased by 10×; no offshore carbon storage availability | Same |
Engineered CDR | DACCS and EW are constrained to 8 GtCO2-yr−1 | Not used |
Non-CO2 | Reduced CH4 emissions from dairy, rice, and beef through technological improvement; all regions meet Kigali amendment targets for F-gases | Same |
