Fig. 4: Results for carbon price scenarios.
From: Carbon pricing and system reliability impacts on pathways to universal electricity access in Africa
Panel a shows the spatial distribution of the estimated population requiring electricity access up to 2030 (see Baseline scenario). Panel b shows the grid emissions intensity of electricity (kilograms carbon dioxide equivalent per kWh) used in the modelling, detailed by country in Table S6 in the Supplementary Materials. Panel c describes the sensitivity to different carbon prices (see Table S5 in the Supplementary Materials) that shares of grid, PV and diesel have at each Tier of access. Panels d–f describe shifts in the electricity access technologies at Tiers 2–4 from the reference scenario (Ref_central) to the carbon price scenario (Ctax_median). Panels g–i describe the geographical distribution of the corresponding change in GHG emissions resulting from the carbon price scenarios at Tiers 2–4 (given in kilotonnes CO2e, 1e7 on the scale). Panels j–l give mapped sensitivity showing at what carbon price (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report database decile values) mode shifting occurs, Tiers 2–4.
