Table 1 The main scenarios modelled in this paper

From: Carbon pricing and system reliability impacts on pathways to universal electricity access in Africa

Scenario

Demand tier

Description

Target year

Baseline

N/A

Scenario that uses historical trends in improvements in access and projected population growth to estimate the population remaining without access by the target year.

2020/2035

Reference

   

Ref_central

Tiers 1–4

Central reference scenario where all unmet population above the baseline gain access via calculated least-cost electrification technology by 2030.

2030

Ref_single_modes

Tiers 3 & 4

Reference scenarios where all unmet population above the baseline gain access via single access technologies, e.g., all via grid/diesel, etc., for emissions and investment comparisons.

2030

Ref_late

Tiers 2–4

Central reference scenario where all unmet population above the baseline gain access via calculated least-cost access technology with a later target date.

2035

Reliability

   

Rel_grid_all

Tiers 2–4

Reliability scenario where all unmet population above the baseline gain access via calculated least-cost mode with the off-grid technologies sized at the assumed reliability of the rural grid in for each respective country.

2030

Rel_penalty_0.50

Tiers 2–4

Reliability scenario where all unmet population above the baseline gain access via calculated least-cost technology with a 0.5 US Dollar /kWh penalty for unmet demand applied across all (see the “Methods” section).

2030

Carbon pricing

   

Ctax_median

Tiers 2–4

Carbon price scenario where all unmet population above the baseline gaining access via calculated least-cost technology, with a carbon price scheme representing the median values from the Intergovernmental Governmental Panel of Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) database44 (C1 and C2 scenarios) is applied across all technologies (see the “Methods” section).

2030

  1. The baseline scenarios attempt to understand the expected outcomes given recent trends in connections and expected population growth. The Reference scenarios are variants of a least-cost pathway to universal household electricity access with no policy intervention. The reliability scenarios explore how the least-cost pathways may be different when sizing off-grid systems at lower levels or applying a financial penalty for unmet demand (see the “Methods” section). The carbon pricing scenario details the least-cost pathways to universal access when a dynamic carbon price is applied across all access technologies (see the “Methods” section).
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