Fig. 2: Predicted year of dengue invasion.
From: Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue
Predicted year of invasion for Mexico (A–C) and Brazil (D–F) since the beginning of national dengue surveillance (Mexico: 1995–2019, Brazil 2001–2019). A, D give raw municipality-level predictions while B, E summarise spread trends using thin-plate splines. C, F show smoothed trends of model residuals where brown colours show areas where dengue was reported before predicted (or never predicted- assigned the value −5) by the model and green vice versa. Source of Administrative boundaries: The Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL) dataset, implemented by FAO within the CountrySTAT and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) projects. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
