Fig. 6: Predicted historical expansion of dengue in Brazil (1983–2001).
From: Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue
Plausible origins of dengue introduction are identified from phylogenetic (horizontal clades) and sporadic outbreak reports (vertical lines) records in (A). The fit of the spread model to the observed distribution in the year 2001 when initiated with different combinations of these sources is shown in (B) (only best-performing model with 1–5 sources shown) with predictions of the best fitting model up to 2001 shown in (C). NPV negative predictive value, PPV positive predictive value. Source of Administrative boundaries: The Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL) dataset, implemented by FAO within the CountrySTAT and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) projects. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
