Fig. 3: Projected changes in IOD amplitude and impact on Kenya economic growth.
From: Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies
a Changes in IOD amplitude from the 20th century (1900−1999) to 21st century (2000−2099) based on 16 CMIP6 models under four IPCC scenarios, with box indicating the range between the 25th and 75th percentile and whisker indicating the range between the 5th and 95th percentile. Colors refer to different IPCC scenarios. The multi-model ensemble median and mean for each scenario are shown as white and black vertical line, respectively. b Same as (a) but for changes in IOD-induced century-averaged GDP growth rate for Kenya, obtained as difference between results derived from the projected and counterfactual IOD time series over the 21st century, with the counterfactual having the same event sequences but the amplitude scaled to that over the 20th century. c Relationship between changes in IOD amplitude (21st century minus 20th century) and changes in Kenya GDP growth from the changing IOD amplitude. The R squared and p-value of a linear fit are given. Loss in economic growth increases with projected intensification of IOD variability in all emission scenarios.
