Fig. 4: Projected additional loss in global GDP from changing IOD.

a Probability distribution of estimated future change in global GDP resulting from changing IOD under SSP5-8.5 scenario at a 3% discount rate with uncertainty from econometric model regression and IOD sequences (see “Sources of uncertainty” in “Methods”), cumulative over the period of 2020−2099. Solid vertical line indicates the median value. Light and dark shading indicate the 5th-95th and 25th-75th percentile range, respectively. b Future changes in global GDP from changing IOD under four IPCC scenarios, with box indicating the range between the 25th and 75th percentile and whisker indicating the range between the 5th and 95th percentile range. White line shows the median value. c Sources of uncertainty including emission scenarios (‘SSP’), different IOD amplitude changes in climate models (‘Climate model’), choices of discount schemes (‘Discount rate’), bootstrapped econometric model regression (‘Regression’), and re-ordered sequences of IOD events (‘IOD sequence’). The total uncertainty includes all these factors (see “Sources of uncertainty” in “Methods”). Each black vertical line is a point estimate (for example, there are four estimates for four SSP scenarios shown for the ‘SSP’ uncertainty), with red vertical line indicating the median value. d Nonlinear relationship between changes in IOD amplitude (21st century minus 20th century) and changes in global GDP from the changing IOD at a 3% discount rate cumulative over the period of 2020−2099, using the four IPCC scenarios. The R squared and p-value of a quadratic fit are given. Loss in economic production increases exponentially with projected intensification of IOD variability in all emission scenarios.