Fig. 4: Results in the genetic-centric analysis.

A AUCs of all models based on Phenotype Definition IV. A heatmap summarizes the AUCs of all models based on Phenotype Definition IV (i.e., T2D was defined by self-reported T2D, HbA1c, and fasting glucose). The genetic variables are shown on the X-axis, and the demographic variables are shown on the Y-axis. B Positive correlation between PRS and T2D odds ratio. In each decile of PRS based on PRS-CSx, the odds ratio of T2D risk and its 95% confidence interval were calculated based on an unadjusted model (blue line) and an adjusted model considering age, sex, and T2D family history (red line). The reference group was the PRS group in the 40–60% decile. The horizontal bars are presented as the odds ratio estimates (square symbol) +/– its 95% confidence intervals (left and right ends) at a PRS decile. C High-risk group. In the chart, the figures from the inner to the outer represent (i) the case-to-control ratio, (ii) the number of cases, and (iii) the number of controls in the PRS decile subgroups. D Association of age, sex, T2D family history, and PRS with T2D. In the univariate analysis, the p-values for age, sex, family history, and PRS were 4.17 × 10^–20, 7.08 × 10^–7, 9.41 × 10^–13, and 2.06 × 10^–13, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, the p-values for age, sex, family history, and PRS were 2.00 × 10^–16, 5.56 × 10^–5, 1.43 × 10^–10, and 5.49 × 10^–13, respectively. E Risk factors for T2D. Kaplan-Meier curves reveal that Age (older individuals), sex (males), T2D family history (the larger number of parents and siblings who had T2D), and PRS (high decile PRS group) are risk factors (high-risk level) for T2D risk. F Median event time of T2D. Examples of the median event time for developing T2D are provided based on a multivariate Cox regression model, both without and with incorporating PRS. NA indicates not assessable. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.