Fig. 1: Post-stratified modelled estimates of swab PCR positivity by region over time.

Modelled estimates are post-stratified for age, sex, CIS area (116 sub-regions within the 9 administrative regions shown), ethnicity and vaccination status. Estimates are presented as posterior medians (solid lines) with shading representing a 95% credible interval. Crude numbers from the underlying data are labelled as raw data. Vertical black lines indicate from left to right the start (at the national level) of the Alpha, Delta, Omicron BA1, and Omicron BA2 dominant period, respectively.