Fig. 1: Scenario design that combines states of the world with policy portfolios.

First, states of the world were shaped by varying types and levels of the five disruptors. A total of 3001 states of the world involving no disruptors, only one disruptor, and all disruptors were considered. The baseline state of the world was a pathway along the current development trajectory and did not involve any disruptors. Then, five policy clusters related to a subset of the SDGs and disruptors were identified. Each policy cluster consisted of one 'no response' and two alternative policies to meet higher levels of improvements in specific sectors, including education, health, energy, water, and land. Each policy portfolio was formed by a combination of five policies from different policy clusters. By combining 3001 states of the world with 243 policy portfolios, we obtained a total of 729,243 scenarios. Each arrow between a policy and a disruptor or SDG indicates that the disruptor or SDG at the end point of the arrow is affected by the policy at the start point of the arrow.