Fig. 2: Overview of the input data and dimensions of uncertainty.
From: Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks
a All-sector total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for nine investigated scenarios (GHG emissions as considered by the Kyoto Protocol, aggregated with Global Warming Potentials over a period of 100 years, GtCO2eq/year). b Resulting temperature outcomes, including climate response uncertainty, given in °C relative to preindustrial (1850–1900 average). Shaded areas correspond to the 10–90th temperature percentiles, the median is given by the line. Scenario Ref-1p5 has been added for comparison and is only defined in temperature space. c Network of the four investigated tipping elements with interactions: Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Amazon Rainforest (AMAZ). Every arrow symbolises a physical interaction mechanism between two tipping elements, categorised as destabilising (+), stabilising (−), or uncertain (±). d Critical temperature ranges under sustained warming for at least the respective tipping timescale, given in °C relative to preindustrial. The ranges of AMOC and AMAZ extend beyond the plot up to 8.0 and 6.0 °C, respectively. Intensifying grey indicates an increasing risk that a threshold will be exceeded, with lines marking the centre estimates. e Timescales of the tipping elements, with centre estimate (dot) and estimated range, from committing the tipping until it is completed. For critical temperature ranges, timescales of tipping, and interactions between tipping elements, also see Supplementary Tables 1 and 2.
