Fig. 5: Impact of overshoot peak temperature and non-linear acceleration in tipping risk.
From: Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks
a Increase in tipping risk (%) until 2300 per overshoot peak temperature, for all trajectories with overshoot above 1.5 °C. Each point represents one temperature percentile (10–90%) of a scenario and is coloured by the corresponding scenario information. b Acceleration in tipping risk for overshoot peak temperature. Each point represents the slope of a linear fit through a window of 25 adjacent data points of peak temperature vs. tipping risk (see panel a), thereby denoting the increase in tipping risk for this window, against the mean peak temperature within this window. The sliding window analysis is shown for all four tipping elements separately: Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Amazon Rainforest (AMAZ), as well as for the combined risk of the four considered tipping elements (panel b, yellow points). Shaded areas represent the 95% confidence interval.
