Fig. 1: Schematic illustrating the key questions that mathematical modelling was used to address during the 2017 EVD outbreak in Likati Health Zone, DRC.
From: Using real-time modelling to inform the 2017 Ebola outbreak response in DR Congo
Following eight EVD cases occurring between 27 March and 11 May 2017, the ERT was deployed on 15 May 2017. Mathematical modelling was used to assess: (i) The effectiveness of the ERT at reducing transmission (Key Question 1), and; (ii) The risk of withdrawing the ERT, quantified in terms of the probability that further cases would occur if the ERT was withdrawn (Key Question 2; this quantity was evaluated every day until the ERT was withdrawn on 2 July 2017). In this figure, and in all subsequent figures in the main text, dates are expressed in DD/MM format (all in 2017).
