Table 5 Best presence model results

	Diversiflorum	Centrale	Eragrostis	Scaevola
Site distance	0.11 *** [0.05, 0.25]	0.12 * [0.02, 0.61]	1.13 [0.78, 1.64]	2.32 ** [1.25, 4.30]
Land use	6.37 ** [1.95, 20.81]	0.59 [0.17, 2.00]	0.49 * [0.28, 0.87]	0.61 [0.25, 1.48]
Site dist × Land Use	0.00 *** [0.00, 0.01]	0.09 * [0.01, 0.67]	0.03 *** [0.01, 0.09]	11.82 ** [2.69, 52.07]
Water permanence	13.73 *** [4.78, 39.42]		0.63 [0.28, 1.42]	0.15 * [0.03, 0.74]
Fire frequency	0.57 [0.27, 1.22]	2.93 * [1.19, 7.18]	0.72 [0.43, 1.22]
Site type Major	0.08 ** [0.01, 0.41]			0.16 ** [0.04, 0.61]
Season Winter		0.28 [0.03, 2.37]	0.27 *** [0.19, 0.40]
Time since fire		0.82 [0.00, 39165.03]	0.00 *** [0.00, 0.01]
Season × TSF		0.00 [0.00, 2.62]
Land Use × Season			3.45 *** [2.08, 5.71]
Land Use × Water perm	27302.32 *** [1282.01, 581445.45]		11.60 *** [3.04, 44.20]
Site dist × Season		3.13 [0.63, 15.47]
Site dist × Water perm	23.88 *** [4.04, 141.09]
Season × Fire Frequency			1.81 [0.90, 3.61]
Carbon		0.11 ** [0.03, 0.46]		0.36 * [0.15, 0.84]
Total Veg Cover		3.63 * [1.35, 9.72]	0.57 ** [0.40, 0.80]
Elevation			0.19 ** [0.07, 0.52]	6.66 ** [1.80, 24.62]
NDMI			1.73 * [1.11, 2.70]
GreenVegCover			0.64 ** [0.47, 0.86]
PCT sand	0.48 * [0.24, 0.98]		2.52 *** [1.62, 3.90]	2.49 * [1.16, 5.38]
R² Fixed effects	0.52	0.29	0.30	0.32
R² Fixed + Random	0.55	0.61	0.59	0.75

Model covariates (GLM, binomial, n = 10 random effect levels, n = 2924 observations) as the standardized odds ratio (2sd) for the probability of plant presence per plot (±95% CI in square brackets). Odds ratios higher than 1 indicate the predictor variable increases the odds of presence; those less than 1 indicate a negative relationship (the predictor variable decreases the likelihood of presence). Interaction (crossed) terms in the model are represented by “X”. Caution must be used in interpreting the coefficients from interaction terms. R² terms are reported as Nakagawa’s R² and are suggestive of the proportion of variation explained by the fixed terms, vs the fixed terms plus the random effect of Transect. Asterisks indicate significant p values (* = <0.05, ** = <0.01, *** = <0.001).

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