Table 2 One-to-four-week coverage and one-to-four-week percent of coverage above 90% for teams meeting inclusion criteria. One-to-four-week is abbreviated with each number and “Wk” indicates week
Model | Relative WIS | % WIS Below Baseline | Coverage | % Coverage above 90 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Wk | 2 Wk | 3 Wk | 4 Wk | 1 Wk | 2 Wk | 3 Wk | 4 Wk | ||||
2021-22 | |||||||||||
CMU-TimeSeries | 0.74 | 75.00 | 90.17 | 91.45 | 90.60 | 86.54 | 50.00 | 72.22 | 61.11 | 27.78 | |
Flusight-ensemble | 0.82 | 92.31 | 89.32 | 86.11 | 85.15 | 83.33 | 55.56 | 33.33 | 27.78 | 38.89 | |
PSI-DICE | 0.83 | 76.92 | 88.89 | 83.87 | 78.31 | 76.50 | 38.89 | 27.78 | 5.56 | 0.00 | |
Umass-trends_ensemble | 0.85 | 48.08 | 96.15 | 97.65 | 96.90 | 96.15 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | |
Sgroup-RandomForest | 0.91 | 44.23 | 95.41 | 94.87 | 94.66 | 94.12 | 88.89 | 88.89 | 83.33 | 88.89 | |
CEID-Walk | 0.93 | 76.92 | 82.09 | 83.77 | 81.01 | 81.85 | 37.50 | 37.50 | 31.25 | 37.50 | |
Flusight-baseline | 1.00 | 0.00 | 82.26 | 84.19 | 82.48 | 81.62 | 27.78 | 22.22 | 22.22 | 22.22 | |
MOBS-GLEAM_FLUH | 1.02 | 56.00 | 71.11 | 65.80 | 59.79 | 56.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
GT-FluFNP | 1.03 | 54.00 | 70.11 | 68.67 | 68.22 | 70.11 | 5.56 | 16.67 | 16.67 | 22.22 | |
SigSci-TSENS | 1.03 | 46.00 | 74.11 | 73.44 | 70.54 | 69.20 | 11.11 | 5.56 | 5.56 | 5.56 | |
IEM_Health-FluProject | 1.05 | 48.08 | 91.45 | 86.54 | 82.59 | 78.21 | 72.22 | 38.89 | 22.22 | 22.22 | |
CU-ensemble | 1.08 | 32.69 | 79.59 | 80.66 | 76.50 | 71.90 | 16.67 | 11.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
LucompUncertLab-TEVA | 1.20 | 23.08 | 84.86 | 85.58 | 86.06 | 86.18 | 25.00 | 18.75 | 25.00 | 31.25 | |
UVAFluX-Ensemble | 1.27 | 25.00 | 66.05 | 65.51 | 62.58 | 60.95 | 11.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
LucompUncertLab-VAR2_plusCOVID | 1.30 | 38.46 | 76.70 | 74.77 | 73.30 | 70.14 | 17.65 | 5.88 | 5.88 | 5.88 | |
LUcompUncertLab-VAR2K_plusCOVID | 1.39 | 25.00 | 75.72 | 75.24 | 74.04 | 72.72 | 6.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
UT_FluCast-Voltaire | 1.39 | 5.77 | 94.73 | 90.96 | 89.13 | 90.42 | 83.33 | 72.22 | 55.56 | 61.11 | |
LucompUncertLab-VAR2 | 1.53 | 11.54 | 73.87 | 72.29 | 72.17 | 70.81 | 11.76 | 5.88 | 11.76 | 11.76 | |
LucompUncertLab-VAR2K | 1.54 | 11.54 | 81.97 | 81.49 | 83.05 | 85.46 | 6.25 | 18.75 | 25.00 | 37.50 | |
LosAlamos_NAU-Cmodel_Flu | 1.70 | 13.46 | 65.28 | 59.29 | 56.52 | 54.06 | 5.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
Sgroup-SikJalpha | 1.70 | 1.92 | 40.28 | 45.73 | 48.08 | 48.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
GH-Flusight | 1.81 | 5.77 | 18.33 | 12.90 | 11.99 | 10.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
SigSci-CREG | 1.97 | 12.00 | 46.87 | 43.98 | 43.86 | 43.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
2022-23 | |||||||||||
MOBS-GLEAM_FLUH | 0.61 | 94.12 | 81.34 | 77.50 | 76.84 | 78.23 | 41.94 | 29.03 | 29.03 | 25.81 | |
CMU-TimeSeries | 0.67 | 86.54 | 86.27 | 87.12 | 87.25 | 86.73 | 58.06 | 64.52 | 70.97 | 70.97 | |
PSI-DICE | 0.70 | 92.31 | 88.03 | 81.27 | 77.17 | 75.37 | 64.52 | 67.74 | 64.52 | 58.06 | |
MIGHTE-Nsemble | 0.73 | 94.23 | 86.16 | 84.22 | 81.71 | 76.80 | 63.33 | 60.00 | 66.67 | 60.00 | |
Flusight-ensemble | 0.77 | 100.00 | 85.79 | 81.64 | 78.78 | 77.85 | 64.52 | 67.74 | 64.52 | 61.29 | |
Umass-trends_ensemble | 0.80 | 92.31 | 90.88 | 89.89 | 87.41 | 86.17 | 77.42 | 74.19 | 70.97 | 70.97 | |
GT-FluFNP | 0.81 | 92.00 | 75.98 | 72.70 | 75.00 | 77.30 | 55.17 | 55.17 | 55.17 | 65.52 | |
SGroup-RandomForest | 0.82 | 96.15 | 90.06 | 84.49 | 81.86 | 80.38 | 73.33 | 70.00 | 70.00 | 66.67 | |
CU-ensemble | 0.83 | 63.46 | 71.60 | 71.38 | 69.90 | 67.75 | 46.15 | 53.85 | 53.85 | 53.85 | |
CEPH-Rtrend_fluH | 0.84 | 71.15 | 75.82 | 80.22 | 79.33 | 78.02 | 46.43 | 50.00 | 57.14 | 46.43 | |
UGA_flucast-Okeeffe | 0.93 | 66.67 | 80.20 | 73.07 | 68.95 | 66.99 | 50.00 | 46.67 | 40.00 | 40.00 | |
VTSanghani-ExogModel | 0.98 | 34.62 | 65.62 | 61.54 | 58.00 | 58.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | |
Flusight-baseline | 1.00 | 0.00 | 78.72 | 74.26 | 71.34 | 69.85 | 58.06 | 58.06 | 58.06 | 58.06 | |
SigSci-TSENS | 1.00 | 42.00 | 76.31 | 74.12 | 72.93 | 71.33 | 54.84 | 54.84 | 54.84 | 58.06 | |
UNC_IDD-InfluPaint | 1.05 | 80.39 | 75.12 | 74.18 | 75.12 | 75.82 | 52.00 | 44.00 | 64.00 | 56.00 | |
UVAFluX-Ensemble | 1.11 | 5.88 | 42.88 | 43.53 | 39.35 | 39.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
SigSci-CREG | 1.33 | 14.00 | 68.28 | 62.27 | 58.85 | 56.87 | 48.39 | 48.39 | 45.16 | 45.16 | |
JHU_IDD-CovidSP | 1.88 | 31.37 | 86.74 | 81.67 | 78.18 | 73.60 | 65.38 | 61.54 | 53.85 | 48.00 | |
