Fig. 2: 15,000 years of Northern Greenland evolution and climate forcing.

Modelled (blue, this work) and reconstructed (green) surface elevation at the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice-core location (a); reconstructions from² (~12–0 kyr ago) and⁴ (8–0 kyr ago) are shown with their mean elevations (thick and dashed green lines, respectively) and 1−σ uncertainties (darker and lighter shaded green, respectively). Surface velocity modelled at NGRIP (b), and simulated effective pressure averaged over the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) basin (c). Modelled distance of the ice front position from the present position at 79°N glacier (see Fig. S1), one of the NEGIS outlet glaciers⁶, with reconstructed ice front evolution from¹⁴ (orange dashed curve) (d). Annual air temperature anomaly (e) reconstructed at 79°N from climate modelling improved by δ¹⁵N ice-core data (pink²⁴); temperature reconstructed at Agassiz from δ¹⁸O and ice melt data is shown in purple (with 1−σ uncertainty shaded)³. Precipitation fraction at NGRIP (f) with respect to the present day retrieved from paleoclimate data assimilation²⁵. Grey dotted vertical lines show the retreat of 79°N from the outer to the inner shelf. Yelmo model ensemble results in a–d are shown with their score-weighted mean (thick blue line) and 1−σ uncertainty range (inner shaded blue).