Fig. 5: netCS estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response.
From: network-based constraint to evaluate climate sensitivity
Central estimates and likely ranges for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) (a) and best estimates and likely ranges for Transient Climate Responses (TCR) (b). Unweighted and weighted ECS estimates and TCR estimates obtained with netCS approach. ECS and TCR values are represented along the y-axis. Green dots represent the ensemble mean values of the ECS/TCR of the 27 CMIP6 models and their sizes are proportional to their weights. Weighted distributions ‘netCS’ are derived from Weighted Wasserstein Distance (\({WWD}\)) and Distance Average Causal Effect (\({D}_{{ACE}}\)) metrics. Means (dashed red lines), medians (‘central estimate’—orange lines), percentiles 17-83th (‘likely range’—boxes) and percentiles 5–95th (‘very likely range’—whiskers) are represented. Central estimates are equal to 3.04 °C for ECS and to 1.86 °C for TCR. Central estimates and likely ranges are lower and narrower than the unweighted ones for both ECS and TCR. CMIP6 models represented are NorESM2-MM, NorESM2-LM, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-AerChem, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, MIROC6, GFDL-ESM4, GISS-E2-1-G, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, CNRM-CM6-1, CanESM5, INM-CM5, UKESM1-0-LL, IPSL-CM6A-LR, NESM3, MRI-ESM2-0, BCC-ESM1, BCC-CSM2-MR, SAM0-UNICON, ACCESS-ESM1-5, E3SM-1-0, FGOALS-f3-L, CAMS-CSM1-0, CESM2, CESM2-WACCM.
