Fig. 2: Temporal evolution of the probability of unrest (Pun; or probability that a large-magnitude earthquake happens in 30 days or less), from 1000 days before to 400 days after the events.
From: Abnormal low-magnitude seismicity preceding large-magnitude earthquakes
a Results obtained when running our algorithm at the epicentral location of the first earthquake (M6.4) of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence (California). b Results obtained when running our algorithm at the epicentral location of the M7.1 2018 Anchorage earthquake (Alaska). Blue lines show the mean value of the predictions obtained through an ensemble of 200 random forest models. Blue-shaded areas show the range of variation of the predictions, with the lower and upper bounds representing minimum and maximum, respectively. Vertical black lines show the occurrence of the earthquakes. See more details in “Methods”.
