Fig. 5: Sequestration potentials of Afforestation/Reforestation.

Sequestration potentials of AR based on this study, previous literature, and AR6-SD are shown, expressed as (a) cumulative carbon sequestration through AR over time (GtCO₂) and (b) annual sequestration rate through AR (GtCO₂/year). The green line represents the ensemble mean (10 members) additional sequestration by land compared to REF achieved in this study and the dark red line the corresponding removal (positive) from the atmosphere, both smoothed with a Savitzky-Golay¹²² filter. The 5–95% percentiles (purple shading), as well as the mean (dark purple line) of AR sequestration estimates of AR6-SD are also presented, estimated based on a subset of 300 scenarios for which explicit information on C sequestration from AR is available. The black dots (and the associated minimum-maximum ranges with vertical thin black lines—if applicable) represent (mean) AR sequestration estimates based on the compiled list of 40 previous studies (see “Methods”, and Supplementary Data 1). The most widely cited studies among them^19,20,67 and the most recent estimate of Mo et al.⁷⁵ which are explicitly mentioned in the “Discussion” section, are shown with different color. The technical and economic mitigation potentials suggested by IPCC WGIII Ch.7¹⁷⁴ are also shown for comparison. To aid visualization, the studies have been randomly shifted in time by ±2.5 years.