Fig. 6: Conditional inference trees with a maximum depth of four cannot accurately predict the AICc weights of TPC models.

Panel (a) shows the R² values reached by alternative candidate trees (with different sets of predictor variables) across the subset of the data on which they were trained. The tree with the highest R² is highlighted in green. Note that R² values vary very little across trees (ranging from 0.0946 to 0.1227), with no tree exhibiting sufficiently high performance. Panel (b) shows the predictions of the best tree (see Supplementary Fig. 6 in Supplementary Note 6) versus the observed AICc weights across the testing subset (AICc weights of 83 models for 548 thermal performance datasets). The dashed line is the one-to-one line. Panel (c) shows the model-specific R² values achieved by the tree across the testing subset against the median observed AICc weight of each model. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.