Fig. 5: Sensitivity analysis of the TC displacement forecast for events between 2017–2020.

First-order sensitivity indices at different lead time from +3.0 days to +0.5 days for all tropical cyclone events causing displacement between 2017 and 2020 (174 total number of events). The orange lines represent the median of the indices, the boxes show the inter-quartile range, and the whiskers show the 95th percentile of the distribution56.