Table 2 Main rationale and hypotheses explaining the expected relationships between the seven socioeconomic factors used in our study and the presence of protected areas on land and sea
Variable | Rationale | Hypothesised effect |
|---|---|---|
Local Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | Poorer areas tend to have fewer protected areas20,33,79, so areas with higher GDP could be more protected. | Positive |
Conflicts | The high incidence of armed conflicts poses significant challenges in achieving conservation targets24. Countries with higher intensity of conflicts are likely to have less protection. | Negative |
Human Development Index (HDI) | Countries with a higher HDI (a measure of health, education, and economy) are likely to have a greater capacity to manage their environment20 and engage their citizens in policy-making12 so are expected to have more protection. | Positive |
Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) | Civil society organisations and local communities can be important actors in advocating for policies aimed at improving measures for biodiversity conservation80. While not being the only element of civil society, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are expected to be important actors in lobbying for, and establishing, protected areas81. Thus, countries with a higher number of NGOs are expected to have greater protection. | Positive |
Marine and terrestrial resources dependency | Protected area designations tend to be biased towards places that have low value to human activities like fisheries and agriculture22,82. Thus, countries with lower dependency upon marine and terrestrial resources are expected to have greater protection. | Negative |
Accessibility in terms of travel time to the nearest city | The majority of protected areas are biased towards greater distance from roads and cities21. Thus, less accessible areas are expected to have greater protection. | Negative |
Human footprint | A high human footprint means that people have easy access to resources, is associated with overexploitation and represents competition for space83. Areas with higher human footprints are thus expected to have less protection. | Negative |
